This Week in the World Affairs Brief

TRUMP IS RUNNING OUT OF OPTIONS FOR IRAN

Despite Trump’s blustering threats to hold to a strict deadline on the ceasefire with Iran before bombing of Iran’s civilian infrastructure if they did not return to the negotiating table by Tuesday 5:00 PM eastern time, Trump backed down and in a bid to calm the markets (and the critics of his handling of this war) extended the ceasefire “indefinitely.” With most of Iran’s military targets already destroyed and fearing that making good on his threat to target civilian infrastructure would make him a war criminal in international legal circles, Trump has few military options left. So it is not surprising that after many long, probably heated discussions with his advisors, Trump has settled on the next most effective pressure point on Iran—continuing the maritime blockade of Iranian ports. The blockade, which is not legal since the US started this war, has already netted one big prize—a cargo ship laden with missile fuel chemicals from China. Trump shrugged off the embarrassment of having earlier claimed he had an agreement with Xi that China would not supply war materiel to Iran saying, “I was a little surprised because I have a very good relationship, and I thought I had an understanding with ... Xi. But that’s all right. That’s the way the war goes, right?” No, Mr. President, that’s NOT “all right,” and you should learn not to trust Xi when you get a slap in the face like this from your presumed trusted Communist leaders. But Trump is so susceptibility to flattery and then seeing his enemies with “rose colored glasses,” I suppose he will never learn that he can’t trust Xi, Kim, and Putin when they tell him what he wants to hear. To receive a free, one-time sample of the Brief, along with option on how to subscribe, click on Request a Sample on the left.

Also:
  • Russian Advances in Ukraine have Stalled
  • Inflation Madness at the Grocery Store
  • Redistricting War Over Control of Congress

Daily News

'Cautious Optimism' Amid Stalemated Pakistan Talks, Even As Iran FM Insists No Meeting Planned With US Side

Zerohedge

Iran denies that FM Abbas Araghchi's trip to Pakistan will include new talks with US, rejecting reports that Trump is sent his negotiating team to restart negotiations. 24/7 shuttle diplomacy (via Al Jazeera): There’' been shuttle diplomacy, and as one diplomat said, it's been relentless diplomacy that has been put forward by Pakistan from all sides. Iran's military says finger on the trigger: "greater power & readiness than before." Pakistani mediators are "cautiously optimistic" despite it being clear negotiations have been at a stalemate.

Interceptor-Drone Arms-Race Emerges

Zerohedge

The proliferation of cheap interceptor drones levels the playing field and provides a low-cost solution against Russian-produced Geran and Iranian-designed Shahed attack drones. Ukraine's interceptor drones are emerging as a cheap solution, costing roughly $1,000 to $3,000 each versus about $4 million for a Patriot missile used to down $20,000 Shahed drones. In the economics of war, this mismatch matters because missile use, especially in the U.S.-Iran conflict, has already outstripped the U.S.' annual production capacity.

IRGC Seizes Ship With Witkoff-Kushner Team En Route To Pakistan; US Sanctions Chinese Refinery, Iran Shadow Fleet

Zerohedge

IRGC seizes a ship it says 'collaborated with US' in provocative move ahead of Pakistan talks; Iran FM preparing written proposal for US side. President Trump is sending two envoys - Steve Witkoff and Jared Jushner - for talks with Iran in Pakistan, CNN reported, while Tehran sounded a more pessimistic tone on the prospects of further negotiations US hits Iran 'shadow fleet' with new sanctions, also takes aim at Chinese 'teapot' oil refinery.

US Drains Half Its Patriot Arsenal During Iran War, New Military Study Finds

ZeroHedge

The seven-week Iran war, currently on pause due to an extended ceasefire, has raised alarm in Washington over the question of how fast the US has burned through its missile interceptor stockpile. The two-week ceasefire, having just been extended, provided an opportunity for both sides to restock and regroup. A fresh analysis from the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) finds the US military tore through nearly half its Patriot interceptor inventory while heavily draining multiple other critical missile stockpiles.

Tit-For-Tat Assaults On Shipping Widen: US Intercepts 3 More 'Illicit' Tankers In Asian Waters, Iran Seizes Additional 2 In Hormuz

ZeroHedge

At least two fully laden Iranian tankers slip past US naval blockade, amid reports of more going dark, BBG reports, but Pentagon denies. Reports of three more Iranian tankers being seized by US in Asian waters. Iran in turn seizes 2 more ships in Hormuz, citing "dangerous navigation". Trump extends ceasefire by 3-5 days, per White House statement to Fox. Third US carrier precisely 3-5 day away from Mideast waters: Fox IRGC seized the MSC Francesca and a Greek-owned ship named Euphoria, which had been attempting to transit the Hormuz chokepoint earlier today. Within hours, a third ship comes under fire by the IRGC. Senior Iranian adviser says the US naval blockade is "no different than bombing" and must be met "with a military response". Competing narratives emerge over what Iran calls "fake news" as Trump hails "release" of 8 Iranian women said to be facing death penalty.

Pentagon Denies Widespread Reports Of Iran's 'Dark' Tankers Breaching US Blockade

ZeroHedge

It continued, "In fact, the Iranian-flagged tankers are anchored in Chah Bahar, Iran, after being intercepted by U.S. forces earlier this week. Dorena has been under the escort of a U.S. Navy destroyer in the Indian Ocean after previously attempting to violate the blockade." Earlier even Bloomberg alleged that two Iranian fully laden tankers breached the US blockade. Amid two competing and contradictory narratives, the fog of war remains thick, making it difficult to assess which version is ultimately correct.

Vance's Pakistan Trip 'On Hold' After Iran Demands Lifting Blockade Of Its Ports, Talks Appear Off

ZeroHedge

Neither side wants to appear 'weak' by flying to Pakistan first without the other side having already clearly committed. Trump warns: 'Expect...bombs' & urges Tehran "release women" said to be on death row. Overnight, US forces conducted a right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding of the stateless sanctioned M/T Tifani in Indo-Pac region: CENTCOM As just 12 ships have gone through Hormuz Strait in last 24 hours, Iran claims one of its own made it past the US naval blockade. CENTOM says 28 turned around.

Chief Justice Roberts Faces Two Strikes After New Leak Rocks the Court`

Jonathan Turley

For an institution that prides itself on its confidentiality and insularity, the Court is looking increasingly porous and partisan in these leaks. Worse yet, people are indeed coming to the Court “to see the umpires.” The most recent leak was published by the New York Times, which was given internal memos from various Supreme Court justices on the use of what is known as the “shadow docket” to issue rulings without oral arguments.

'Highly Unlikely' US Will Extend Iran Ceasefire, 'Lots Of Bombs Will Go Off' If No Deal: Trump

ZeroHedge

President Pezeshkian cites "historical distrust" and states on X: "they seek Iran's surrender. Iranians do not submit to force." Vance intends to depart Tuesday to Pakistan, though still unclear whether Iranians will join - Pakistanis say yes, but timeline is fluid. Trump warns "nobody's playing games" & "lots of bombs will go off" if no deal (PBS) Xi to Saudi crown prince important phone call: "the first time the Chinese leader had called for the reopening of the strategically vital waterway."

Europe Faces Summer Jet Fuel Crisis as Iran War Slashes Supply

Oil Price.com

Europe faces an imminent jet fuel crisis as the Iran war and Hormuz disruption cut off key Middle Eastern supplies. Long-term refinery closures and rising import dependence have left Europe highly exposed, with limited alternatives and growing competition from Asia. Airlines are already cutting capacity and warning of higher fares, with potential flight cancellations looming as fuel shortages intensify.

US Prepares To Board Iran-Linked Ships Globally Following Iranian Gunboat Attack On Tanker In Hormuz

Zerohedge

US officials: War may resume if no peace talks breakthrough: Axios Two Iranian gunboats Open Fire on a tanker near Oman; 2nd tanker hit by 'unknown projectile'. India summons Iranian ambassador to condemn incident Pentagon prepared to expand anti-vessel action, signals prepared to board Iran-linked ships globally Friday: Hormuz Open; Saturday: Hormuz Closed Trump: Iran wanted to close up Strait again, can't blackmail us

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