President Trump declared on July 7 that the ceasefire is over and went back on the attack against Iran. Iran then announced that it is again closing or severely restricting passage through the strait in response to renewed US military strikes. Commercial shipping has slowed dramatically. According to Reuters, only a handful of tankers have transited recently, with many vessels delaying voyages or turning back because of the military threat and soaring insurance costs. Oil prices are again rising in response. VP Vance hinted last week that Trump didn’t have confidence the MOU would hold but wanted to see how many ships could get through while it lasted to replenish stockpiles in the West. This tranche of oil that got through will refill some of the empty storage containers in Europe and California, but it won’t be enough to build reserves back up. If Trump were smart about this instead of being so bull-headed, he would have allowed Iran to restrict transit on the Omani side, which directed all shipping to Iran’s preferred southern route. They claimed to be doing mine clearing, which probably was just an excuse. Iran attacked 3 ships, and Trump responded by giving up the ceasefire completely. Accommodating Iran, at least during the MOU period would have been a good compromise which would have allowed the West to build more reserves during the 60-day period. Iran still clearly wants to control the oil through the strait, and earn some revenue off of it, to pay for some of the damage the US and Israel have caused. Even though Trump doesn’t want that to happen, he should have given a little in order to keep the ceasefire going. To receive a free, one-time sample of the Brief, along with options on how to subscribe, click on Request a sample on the left
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Iran reiterated its rejection of negotiations with the US unless Washington meets conditions including resolving transit issues through the Strait of Hormuz and normalizing the Islamic Republic's oil exports.
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