WHY TRUMP HAS FAILED TO TURN THE CEASEFIRE INTO A DEAL
If nothing else, the Iran war has shown that the US and Israel can’t bring every country to its knees by an air war against military targets alone, especially a country that has prepared in advance by protecting much of their offensive weapons deep underground. So far they have wisely held back from using their air power to destroy the infrastructure but Trump’s verbal volley about an “entire civilization will die,” is impossible without becoming a war criminal. In short, the “cards” that Netanyahu and Trump so confidently played (or threatened to play) against Iran haven’t produced the hoped for results: quick regime change and easy capitulation of Iran that Netanyahu claimed when he talked Trump into this war. In fact, Iran still has enough missiles and drones left to threaten Israel and nearby US allied Arab nations. And, it has sufficient anti-ship missiles, drones and mines left to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for quite some time. There is even one more card Iran can play: they can get the Houthis to use their missiles and drones to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on the Red Sea, and again block the Suez Canal. With both major sea routes closed, the world economy would really feel the pinch. So, contrary to Trump and Vance’s boasting about “holding all the cards,” they don’t. And that is why Vance came back empty-handed from Pakistan this week. Trump is desperate for a deal with Iran but it’s not going to be totally “on his terms” as he is demanding. To receive a free one-time sample of the brief, along with options on how to subscribe, click on Request a sample on the left.
The seven-week Iran war, currently on pause due to an extended ceasefire, has raised alarm in Washington over the question of how fast the US has burned through its missile interceptor stockpile.
The two-week ceasefire, having just been extended, provided an opportunity for both sides to restock and regroup. A fresh analysis from the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) finds the US military tore through nearly half its Patriot interceptor inventory while heavily draining multiple other critical missile stockpiles.
At least two fully laden Iranian tankers slip past US naval blockade, amid reports of more going dark, BBG reports, but Pentagon denies.
Reports of three more Iranian tankers being seized by US in Asian waters. Iran in turn seizes 2 more ships in Hormuz, citing "dangerous navigation".
Trump extends ceasefire by 3-5 days, per White House statement to Fox. Third US carrier precisely 3-5 day away from Mideast waters: Fox
IRGC seized the MSC Francesca and a Greek-owned ship named Euphoria, which had been attempting to transit the Hormuz chokepoint earlier today. Within hours, a third ship comes under fire by the IRGC.
Senior Iranian adviser says the US naval blockade is "no different than bombing" and must be met "with a military response".
Competing narratives emerge over what Iran calls "fake news" as Trump hails "release" of 8 Iranian women said to be facing death penalty.
Mr Baker, a former FBI employee named Kyle Seraphin and Kentucky representative Thomas Massie also pushed the accusation, saying FBI Director Kash and other FBI officials were lying and an innocent guy was arrested. The arrested suspect, Brian J. Cole, Jr., confessed to the crimes.
At the center of this new security effort to fortify the airspace above Prince Sultan Air Base against low-cost Iranian one-way attack drones is Sky Map, a Ukrainian command-and-control platform used to detect incoming drones. The coordinated response to Shaheds is the use of interceptor drones.
The Wall Street Journal has verified something that Iraqi officials themselves were denying just days ago: the US is blocking Iraq's regular dollar shipments in order to pressure it's Iran-backed militias.
It continued, "In fact, the Iranian-flagged tankers are anchored in Chah Bahar, Iran, after being intercepted by U.S. forces earlier this week. Dorena has been under the escort of a U.S. Navy destroyer in the Indian Ocean after previously attempting to violate the blockade."
Earlier even Bloomberg alleged that two Iranian fully laden tankers breached the US blockade. Amid two competing and contradictory narratives, the fog of war remains thick, making it difficult to assess which version is ultimately correct.
This has resulted in the US embassy in Beirut issuing an urgent renewed security alert, urging US citizens to depart Lebanon while commercial flight options are still available.
Neither side wants to appear 'weak' by flying to Pakistan first without the other side having already clearly committed. Trump warns: 'Expect...bombs' & urges Tehran "release women" said to be on death row.
Overnight, US forces conducted a right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding of the stateless sanctioned M/T Tifani in Indo-Pac region: CENTCOM
As just 12 ships have gone through Hormuz Strait in last 24 hours, Iran claims one of its own made it past the US naval blockade. CENTOM says 28 turned around.
For an institution that prides itself on its confidentiality and insularity, the Court is looking increasingly porous and partisan in these leaks. Worse yet, people are indeed coming to the Court “to see the umpires.”
The most recent leak was published by the New York Times, which was given internal memos from various Supreme Court justices on the use of what is known as the “shadow docket” to issue rulings without oral arguments.
The announcement came after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio led the rare talks between the countries in Washington on April 14—the first time leaders from the neighboring countries met in-person in the U.S. Capitol in 34 years.
President Pezeshkian cites "historical distrust" and states on X: "they seek Iran's surrender. Iranians do not submit to force."
Vance intends to depart Tuesday to Pakistan, though still unclear whether Iranians will join - Pakistanis say yes, but timeline is fluid. Trump warns "nobody's playing games" & "lots of bombs will go off" if no deal (PBS)
Xi to Saudi crown prince important phone call: "the first time the Chinese leader had called for the reopening of the strategically vital waterway."
Ethane is a natural gas liquid primarily used to produce ethylene, a key building block for plastics, and China depends almost entirely on the US for supply. The product became a political flashpoint between Beijing and Washington last year after the US tightened export controls during a bitter trade war.
The carrier is rejoining an expanding US military buildup in the region - with the USS Abraham Lincoln strike group already deployed, and the USS George H.W. Bush expected to soon join, which would bring the number of US carriers in the Middle East to three.
Radev, a eurosceptic former fighter pilot, built his campaign around calls for pragmatic ties with Moscow, resumption of Russian energy supplies and an end to military aid for Ukraine.
The Iranian crew refused to listen, so our Navy ship stopped them right in their tracks by blowing a hole in the engineroom.
Right now, U.S. Marines have custody of the vessel.
Europe faces an imminent jet fuel crisis as the Iran war and Hormuz disruption cut off key Middle Eastern supplies.
Long-term refinery closures and rising import dependence have left Europe highly exposed, with limited alternatives and growing competition from Asia.
Airlines are already cutting capacity and warning of higher fares, with potential flight cancellations looming as fuel shortages intensify.
US officials: War may resume if no peace talks breakthrough: Axios
Two Iranian gunboats Open Fire on a tanker near Oman; 2nd tanker hit by 'unknown projectile'.
India summons Iranian ambassador to condemn incident
Pentagon prepared to expand anti-vessel action, signals prepared to board Iran-linked ships globally
Friday: Hormuz Open; Saturday: Hormuz Closed
Trump: Iran wanted to close up Strait again, can't blackmail us
On Friday, Trump declared the US had "prohibited" further Israeli strikes just as the administration-brokered 10-day ceasefire with Lebanon kicked in. The US President was unusually harsh in rhetoric with America's longtime #1 Mideast ally, writing on Truth Social that "enough is enough".
The Trump administration renewed a key sanctions waiver on April 17, allowing countries to purchase Russian oil stranded at sea, responding to urgent pressure from Asian nations battered by skyrocketing energy costs. [Putin wins again]
the Foreign Secretary conveyed India's deep concern at the shooting incident earlier today involving two Indian-flagged ships in the Strait of Hormuz," the statement from India said. The full statement, which is still somewhat tame in its rhetoric in light of the fact that what the Indian vessel thought was an "approved" transit came under direct attack:
Two gay men in Nashville recorded themselves taunting the baby they obtained through surrogacy as he cried desperately for his mother. The now viral clip has ignited fury across X.
The clip opens with one man asking the infant, “Who do you want, Dada or Pop?” The baby responds, “Mama.” The man replies, “No, there is no mama,” and the baby cries.
The plan involves replacing older satellites with newer third-generation models and adjusting their orbits to improve worldwide coverage. The system will be streamlined from 50 to 37 active satellites, most operating in medium Earth orbit like GPS and Europe’s Galileo.
Donald Trump announced today that a Lebanon–Israel meeting has been set, presenting it as a diplomatic step forward and hinting at talks “at the level of leaders.” On the surface, it is packaged as de-escalation. In reality, it is the language of urgency from Washington, trying to contain the wider Iran crisis before it spins out of control. Such a meeting gives Israel nothing it has failed to seize by force, brings Netanyahu no closer to any meaningful war aim, and will not erase Hezbollah from the battlefield, the government, or parliament. It reveals the opposite: not Israeli success, but the failure of war to produce the political outcome Israel wanted, and the growing American need to disguise that failure as diplomacy. A staged photo or a phone conversation between Lebanese and Israeli decision-makers, officials, whatever their rank, cannot erase the domestic image of Netanyahu’s defeat, especially when every other party involved rushes to declare victory.
Federal health officials have renewed and revised the CDC’s vaccine advisory committee charter, broadening membership criteria and increasing focus on vaccine safety and injury. The changes come amid ongoing legal disputes and scrutiny over the committee’s structure and direction.
The House passed H.R. 1689 by a vote of 224-204. The bill would codify Temporary Protected Status – known as TPS – for more than 350,000 Haitian nationals until April 2029. TPS is a government program that grants foreign nationals work permits and protection from deportation during a crisis in their home country. It was designed to be temporary. It has become a backdoor amnesty.
