On the eave of his threat to destroy Iran with WWII-style carpet bombing of cities, Trump suddenly pulled back and declared a unilateral ceasefire, claiming a deal with Iran was imminent that would open the Strait of Hormuz. I’d like to credit Trump for this rare moment of sanity, but the details are slowly emerging of other pressures on the president to back off. For instance all the major Arab Gulf allies had reportedly called the president and begged him not to engage in large-scale attacks on cities. They knew their cities and infrastructure would be subject to similar retaliation by Iran. Second, Trump was warned the US is running low on high tech missiles and munitions of all types. Strangely, Iran claims that there are no ongoing negotiations with the United States. I hope they are not so bullheaded as to not respond positively to this peace offering from Trump. This is one of the few times Trump does something reasonable. In truth, both the West and Iran need relief from this campaign of mutual destruction. Trump faces the blame again as oil supplies are drying up fast, and Iran certainly needs time to rebuild after the devastating war losses. And yet it is unlikely that Iran will give in on demanding some type of transit fee structure (or toll) to recoup the multiple billions in war losses. Trump’s big obstacle is his refusal to accept anything that he can’t construe as a “win,” and that’s not really possible with this war where Iran refuses unconditional surrender, and requires some benefits out of a peace deal. Trump, in his typical demanding style, says that these new negotiations are Iran’s “last chance” to make a deal. But Trump is also in no place to make time demands as the oil and munitions shortage looms again, for which he will be blamed. To receive a free, one-time copy of the Brief, along with options on how to subscribe, click on Request a Sample on the left.
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Trump claims "total control" of Hormuz, signals strategy of continued economic pressure.
Iran declares "victory" & says it can sustain the conflict & outlast.
Iran shifts to a "survival economy" to withstand sanctions, Washington's economic warfare, naval blockade.
Peace talks basically not happening, with Pakistan reporting "absolutely no progress."
Tehran: Hormuz remains closed until Washington accepts all conditions.
On Wednesday a "massive" Ukrainian drone and missile strike was unleashed on Russia's port city of Novorossiysk, which badly damaged grain export terminals at what also constitutes the the last major Russian naval base on the Black Sea.
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Iran rejects peace push narrative: Tehran says Hormuz stays closed until the US accepts all its conditions.
Hardliners take control: Iran reshuffles top military leadership, signaling a tougher stance.
Pakistan pushes talks: Interior Minister arrives in Tehran for mediation efforts.
US enforces blockade: American forces reportedly fired on a ship trying to breach the Iran blockade.
Shipping attacks escalate in region: A Houthi attack reportedly killed three crew members, while another vessel was struck in the Gulf of Oman.
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China’s independent refiners are likely to return to buying higher volumes of Iran’s crude oil this month as stockpiles in Shandong, home to the independent Chinese refiners, have dropped to the lowest level this year after the biggest estimated monthly draw in a decade.
Trump demands Iran compensate the US and families of fallen soldiers, but issues no new military threats.
US again pivots to economic warfare: Trump says Washington is "low-keying it" and betting Iran's economic weakness will force concessions.
Iran digs in on Hormuz: Tehran says the Strait will not return to pre-war conditions without major concessions.
Hardliners gain influence: Former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaei is set to take Iran's top security post.
Deal remains elusive: Tehran appears intent on prolonging talks and extracting maximum concessions from Washington.
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“It is up to the U.S. side to stop and make amends for its illegal and destructive actions,” Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said, referencing the U.S. military’s blockade of Iranian ports.
However, analysts - as well as social media users in Iran - were quick to identify the footage as old material from his past lectures in Qom. This has in turn resulted in accusations of a cover-up, and that Tehran is in damage control concerning his status.
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Last weekend, the US military seemed poised to carry out Trump's threat to unleash “the biggest attack since World War II," but he called it off, at least in part because of profound concerns raised by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Iran had promised to wreak havoc up and down the Gulf. “The only ones in favor of the operation were elements of CENTCOM,” said one source, referring to the Pentagon's Central Command, which is responsible for action in the Middle East. The source also pointed out that Israel also wants escalation of the war.
Ukraine failed to intercept any of the 24 ballistic missiles and four Zircon cruise missiles Russia fired in the August 5 attack, underscoring the strain on its missile defenses.
U.S. Patriot availability has become a significant constraint after extensive interceptor use during the Iran conflict.
Kyiv is increasingly seeking European inventories, expanded production, and eventually licensed or joint Patriot manufacturing to secure its air defenses ahead of winter.
"He called for the United States to lift its naval blockade and sanctions on Iran, withdraw the U.S. military from around Iran, pay war reparations and release frozen Iranian assets, as well as end attacks on Iran's allies in the region and threats against the country,"
The UAE, which left OPEC on May 1, has found workarounds to the blockage at the Strait of Hormuz. It has been shuttling crude through the chokepoint to load it on larger vessels outside the Strait, maximizing the use of its onshore pipeline to ship crude from the west to the east of the country, bypassing Hormuz, and shipping tankers through the Strait in dark mode.
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Despite the bluster from Iranian officials on social media, it should come as no surprise that the country is not doing well economically. From the beginning of the conflict to current day, Iran has been dealt an estimated $270 billion to $300 billion in total damage due to a steady barrage of strikes, including numerous infrastructure targets from bridges, highways, railways, airports, etc.
President Trump on Friday urged U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro “revisit” her decision to drop charges against an accused Reflecting Pool vandal after new photos shared on social media, showed clear signs of vandalism.
When the real image appeared, the relief was palpable. “It seems we had found the limit of free speech they had all denied existed. That limit was Islam.”
US official tells Reuters that US will lift blockade upon Omani deal announcement.
Bessent: Hormuz could reopen under a 30-60 day ceasefire as soon as "today or tomorrow."
Iran asserts that US & Israeli vessels remain barred until sanctions are lifted and compensation is paid.
Trump says the conflict could "end pretty soon," signaling a possible final US exit.
Iran remains defiant, pointing out it still has the leverage & can threaten Hormuz.
However, the deal could reopen oil flows while strengthening Iran's control over the strait.
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Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) has asked Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to carry out a national security review of a Chinese solar company’s potential use of a facility located near a major U.S. military base in Dayton, Ohio.
However, fighting has persisted, with Al Jazeera reporting that at least 19 Palestinians killed on Saturday in Israeli attacks and that the total deal toll from the weekend is now 26 people, including women and children.
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on Sunday repeated his call for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to approve the establishment of three Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip, as senior Israeli ministers continue to speak openly about their plans for permanent Israeli control of the Palestinian territory.
