Like it or not, Trump is getting the blame for the war Netanyahu talked him into and he’s desperate for a way out of it. Two thirds of Americans are opposed to what has become Trump’s war on Iran, and his polling numbers are dropping as Americans feel it in the rising cost of fuel and food prices. Iran, on the other hand, is also desperate for a deal before their oil storage tanks fill up, or they will have to stop pumping oil, which can be damaging to oil fields. Their military bases have largely been destroyed and the Iranian military needs a respite from the bombing so they can rebuild. But Iran still possesses enough offensive weapons to continue keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed, which is driving the Western world, especially Europe, toward a deep energy depression. The bottom line is that Trump is finally having to compromise on his one-sided demands, and because of it, insiders say a deal is close. This week I’ll cover what such a deal may look like. To receive a free one-time copy of this brief, along with options on how to subscribe, click on Request a sample on the left.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's description of "suffocating" the Iranian regime through economic and financial pressure, whether via sanctions or the US military blockade of the world's most critical maritime chokepoint, now appears to be showing up in the data.
New geospatial intelligence indicates that Iran's main crude export terminal has gone quiet, while a separate report suggests seaborne oil exports have effectively been halted for the past month.
Another mass casualty event has occurred in Lebanon, as national media says that on Wednesday eight people died, including two children, when Israeli strikes targeted cars on a highway south of Beirut.
Northern Ireland is finally safe. Clive Johnston has been convicted and can no longer menace the public.
Johnson, 78, is a retired pastor who committed the heinous offense of preaching near the Causeway Hospital in Coleraine. That was considered within the “safe access zone” under Northern Ireland’s Abortion Services (Safe Access Zones) Act.
Chicago wheat futures surged on Tuesday, hitting two-year highs after the USDA's latest WASDE report signaled a much tighter U.S. supply outlook than traders had anticipated.
President Trump and his Air Force One entourage have arrived in Beijing on Wednesday, greeted by a lavish red carpet welcome. The American president was received by Chinese Vice President Han Zheng, China’s ambassador to Washington Xie Feng, Executive Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxuong, and US envoy to Beijing David Perdue.
Makary wrote in a text to Trump that he was resigning, effective Tuesday. Makary did not provide a reason for the resignation.
Makary “was having some difficulty, but he’s going to go on, and he’s going to do well,” Trump told reporters outside the White House in Washington.
“So much was accomplished under his leadership. He was a hard worker, who was respected by all, and will go on to have an outstanding career in Medicine,” the president added in another social media post.
Kyle Diamantas, the FDA’s deputy commissioner for food, will be the acting FDA commissioner, according to Trump.
Trump declined to say whether Makary resigned or was fired.
Al Jazeera correspondent Ali Hashem has listed the following five conditions that it sees as the basis for reentering talks:
Ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon
Lifting all sanctions
Releasing frozen Iranian assets
Compensation for war damages and losses
Recognition of Iran’s sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz
"Each has a crew of fewer than 10 people and can carry either two torpedoes or two Chinese-designed C-704 anti-ship cruise missiles," the report described.
Iranian Rear Admiral Shahram Irani said the domestically built submarines, known as the "Persian Gulf Dolphins," are deployed in active operational positions calibrated to confront evolving threats.
The initial Monday headlines suggesting Pakistan sought to protect Iranian military assets resulted in some outrage in D.C. and among the pundit class.
A late in the day Monday CBS News report alleged that US-ally Pakistan allowed Iran to park military aircraft at its airfields, and thus outside the US-Israeli strike zone during Operation Epic Fury
US President blasts 'piece of garbage' Iran response, says ceasefire on 'life support', reportedly mulls renewed military action; US Treasury imposes yet more sanctions.
Trump mulls restarting Project Freedom in Hormuz and says forcibly retrieving 'nuclear dust' is still on the table, oil jumps on headline.
Iran Foreign Ministry: "Everything we proposed in the text was reasonable and generous." However, US officials insist on their "unreasonable demands."
Saudi Arabia condemns Iran for its latest drone attacks targeting the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait on Sunday.
Qatari LNG tanker abruptly U-Turns In Hormuz chokepoint after earlier in weekend an initial one made it through - an unprecedented first for a Qatari tanker of the war.
Israeli reservist killed in Hezbollah drone attack on northern Israel as Lebanon war intensifies.
“I think it’s fair to say it’s shocking how deep we have gone into these magazines,” Kelly said, arguing that the United States had exhausted significant amounts of military hardware without a clearly defined strategy. “Because of that, we’ve expended a lot of munitions, and that means the American people are less safe.”
Kelly also warned that diminished stockpiles could affect America’s ability to respond to future conflicts, including a potential confrontation involving China in the Pacific region.
"... Your salary is only enough to buy a bottle of cooking oil. How do you think you can live like that? How can you live with a ration book that only gives you one or three pounds of sugar and one pound of salt? And there, every fifteen, every four, six months, seven years, they give you a chicken breast or an egg. The egg hasn't come for a year. It's been a year since we last had eggs. Imagine that."
US reportedly struck 4 Iranian oil tankers attempting to traverse the Strait
Qatari LNG Tanker entered the Strait for first time since start of war
US continues to await a formal response from Tehran on a proposal aimed at ending the war
The odds of a permanent peace deal by the end of May have faded notably (now just 25%)...
Let’s remember how this began last year, with of course, a hantavirus death in the family of one of America’s most beloved Hollywood actors. It was Betsy Arakawa, Gene Hackman’s wife, who died February 12, 2025, from apparent hantavirus infection from rodents in the home. Terrifying image.
At that point, no regular person had ever heard of such a disease. There is a reason. It’s rare and human-to-human spread is nearly unknown.
The Iranian government has for the first time officially weighed in on the health of new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who was injured in the opening strikes of Trump's Operation Epic Fury, which killed the younger Khamenei's father and wife.
"A government official claimed Khamenei, who hasn't been seen in public since that attack, is now in good health,"
After hitting 28-year highs earlier in the week, UK gilt yields are lower as UK PM Keir Starmer said he had no plans to step aside as Labour leader after early results in local elections showed Nigel Farage’s populist Reform UK racking up sweeping gains over Britain’s governing party.
From July of this year, every vehicle registered in the European Union will be required to have driver-monitoring cameras in place. That’s not every new car manufactured, but every car newly registered[1].
A bipartisan vote in the House removed a controversial provision shielding pesticide companies from legal liability, signaling the growing influence of the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement.
April 29, 2026 : North Korea’s continued expansion of its nuclear weapons program and long-range missile capabilities is approaching a level that could challenge the operational limits of the United States’ homeland missile defense system, according to a recent analysis published by Bloomberg.
The assessment indicates that a combination of increasing warhead production, a growing inventory of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and technological advancements in delivery systems is shifting Pyongyang’s posture from a minimal deterrent toward a more scalable strike capability.
Despite reports to the contrary, some in the Israeli leadership believe the president is considering paying off the Iranian government to open the Strait of Hormuz
Rubio declares 'offensive' actions of Operation Epic Fury are over, and now Project Freedom is in swing. Another vessel comes under attack in Hormuz.
UAE under attack again, confirmed in state sources - however which Iran denies doing - instead saying its actions were directed at the United States. White House still hasn't declared end of ceasefire.
Pentagon addresses whether ceasefire over or violated: Caine says Iran's Monday operations were "all below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point."
Contradictory statements out of Tehran on UAE attack, amid reports of division between IRGC & civilian leaders.
Two US Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz and entered the Persian Gulf.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travels to Beijing to discuss crisis with Chinese counterpart.
Fujairah is the only oil exporting zone in the country. ...The strike, if confirmed, would be the first strike from Iran on one of its Gulf Arab neighbors since the start of a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran that was announced last month.
Trump employs interesting new term: "We’re in, I call it a mini-war."
Fujairah says 3 injured in Iranian attack on Oil Industry Zone, UAE confirms "air defenses are now dealing with a missile threat", we have gotten reports of explosions in Dubai, which has sent oil higher and Emini futures into the red. UAE threatens retaliation.
CENTCOM hails two US merchant ships exiting Hormuz Strait safely in "first step". Bessent issues remarks warning the US "will fire if fired upon."
Iran insists Hormuz is under its control & says it targeted & struck a US Navy vessel, which the Pentagon/Central Command has denied.
Trump announced Sunday US will 'help free up' ships stuck in Hormuz Strait through Project Freedom. Iran has in response issued a "redefined the control zone" in Strait of Hormuz.
A federal magistrate judge in Washington, D.C., has come under fire after expressing deep concern – described by multiple outlets as an apology – over the custody conditions of Cole Tomas Allen, the 31-year-old accused of attempting to assassinate President Trump at the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner on April 25.
