This Week in the World Affairs Brief

IRAN: PROSPECTS FOR A LONG CONFLICT

This week I’m making the case that the Iran war is turning into a drawn out conflict with no easy end in site. In the first place, despite massive destruction by air on Iran’s military capacity, Iran continues to have enough missile and drone capability left to present an offensive threat to neighboring countries and ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. And even though anti-government protests in all of Iran’s provinces are increasing, the Revolutionary Guard is still very much in control of the government, and is not in any danger of collapsing, despite Trump’s hopeful claims about its instability. In fact, Trump’s unwise threats of annihilating the Iranian civilization has had a galvanizing effect on the Iranian leadership, convincing every religious and military leader in Iran that the US and Israel present an existential threat that requires a unified front. The negotiating positions of the US and Iran are increasingly hardened and unacceptable to each other. So it is little wonder that diplomacy keeps failing. Despite the impasse, both the US and Iran hold cards of strength that neither can effectively contest: Iran can still hold the Strait of Hormuz hostage, and Trump’s naval blockade is strangling Iran’s income stream and economy. Trump is now warning that the Iran blockade could last months, sending the price of oil soaring. To receive a free one-time sample of the Brief, along with options on how to subscribe, click on Request a sample on the left.

Also:
  • Why There Won’t Be Peace in Lebanon
  • Security at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner
  • Preparedness Tip: Practicing Austerity

Daily News

Children’s Health Defense Scientist: CDC, FDA COVID Vaccine Safety Monitoring ‘Insulting, and Many People Are Injured’

Federal health officials under the Biden administration abysmally failed at monitoring COVID-19 vaccine safety signals after the vaccine rollout, according to congressional testimony delivered today by Children’s Health Defense Senior Research Scientist Karl Jablonowski. The government’s vaccine safety monitoring “has been insulting, and many people are injured,” Jablonowski wrote in his written testimony.

What Year Cars Have GPS Tracking: Essential Data

Daily Automotive

As of late 2023, most cars manufactured from around 2010 onwards have integrated GPS tracking, often as part of their infotainment systems or emergency services. However, built-in, always-on GPS for tracking purposes is more common in vehicles equipped with advanced telematics or connected car services introduced in newer model years.

The TPS Scam: Ending Decades of Backdoor Amnesty

ACT for America

For decades, the American people have been lied to about “Temporary Protected Status,” or TPS. The very name is a deception. The “T” stands for temporary, yet in practice, this program has morphed into one of the most blatant forms of backdoor amnesty ever devised. Congressman Andrew Clyde (R-GA) has stepped up with H.R. 8460, the Territorial Protection and Sovereignty Act, which repeals the authority for TPS altogether, terminates existing designations, and requires current holders to leave the United States.

We Now Know How The Government Lied About the COVID Vaccines

Midwestern Doctor

Senator Ron Johnson, who has worked tirelessly to expose this coverup, recently held a Senate hearing whose title says it all: “Unmasked: How Biden Health Officials Purposely Turned a Blind Eye Toward COVID-19 Vaccine Safety Signals.” Faced with a tsunami of vaccine injuries too large for anyone to ignore, the FDA and CDC searched for a way to statistically dismiss it, eventually settling on comparing Moderna’s injury rate to Pfizer’s and declaring the vaccines “safe” because there was no major difference between the two. When a senior FDA analyst pointed out this obvious flaw and suggested comparing them to less toxic vaccines instead, documents show the entire FDA turned against her to suppress her findings. As a result, dozens of conditions we have all seen the COVID vaccines cause were never officially linked to them—despite the data clearly showing they were.

Trump Removes All National Science Board Members

The Epoch Times

When asked why the members were removed, a White House official told The Epoch Times via email that a 2021 Supreme Court decision “raised constitutional questions about whether non-Senate confirmed appointees can exercise the authorities that Congress gave the National Science Board.” “We look forward to working with the Hill to update the statute and ensure the NSB can perform its duties as Congress intended,” the official stated. “The National Science Foundation’s work continues uninterrupted.”

Iran Already Scrambling For Oil Storage After Two Weeks Of US Blockade

ZeroHedge

If wells are forced to shut down due to lack of storage, this could cause permanent damage and render the wells unusable in the future. Recovery is expensive and difficult. If the current data is accurate, then Iran has approximately two more weeks before their economy is destroyed. Loss of $430 million per day in export revenues aside, permanent damage to their oil fields would result in a long term economic disaster. The danger of well shutdowns is probably the reason why the regime has offered new proposals every few days to open the Strait of Hormuz, though, they continue to call for a separate negotiation on their estimated 970 pounds of enriched Uranium stockpile. There is little incentive for Trump to lift the blockade at this time, given the amount of leverage he will have over the Iranian economy if he maintains restrictions on their oil exports for another two weeks. The regime is trapped between a rock and a hard place, and will have to decide soon if their oil wells are more important to them than their Uranium.

First Loaded LNG Tanker Clears Hormuz; First Crude Supertanker Attempts Exit

ZeroHedge

the Mubaraz LNG tanker was loaded at ADNOC's Das Island facility in Abu Dhabi in early March and turned off its transponder around March 31, only reappearing west of India on Monday. The latest ship-tracking data from Bloomberg shows that Mubaraz is approaching the southern tip of Sri Lanka, with the vessel signaling China as its port of call.

DeSantis Unveils New Florida Congressional Map That Could Add 4 GOP Seats

The Epoch Times

since the 2020 Census and said the state’s population growth and political shift justify revisiting district boundaries. He noted that Republicans now outnumber Democrats in the state by about 1.5 million voters. He also criticized the current district lines, saying maps drawn with racial considerations are unconstitutional and should not be used.

WHCA Shooter's Tweets Found, Suggesting Radicalization Fueled By Democratic Messaging

ZeroHedge

Shooter's archived tweets emerge Shooter's Manifesto explained about Trump admin target kill list. He wrote, "prioritized from highest-ranking to lowest" ... Shooter's intent was to Target Trump & admin officials Shooter donated to "Harris for President" via ActBlue Shooter apprehended and taken into custody. Carrying shotgun, handgun and several knives. The shooter has been identified as Cole Tomas Allen, 31, of Torrance California No injuries to Trump or any guests. Incident near lobby magnetometer screening. Trump praised Secret Service rapid response.

Supreme Court to Review Geofencing in Pivotal Case for Privacy Rights

The Epoch Times

The Supreme Court on April 27 will hear oral arguments in a case with major implications for privacy rights—and how law enforcement uses Americans’ cellphone data while investigating crimes. The case, Chatrie v. United States, centers on law enforcement’s use of “geofencing warrants”—judge-authorized requests for cellphone location data near the scene of a crime. Okello Chatrie told the Supreme Court that the government’s use of these warrants, which resulted in a criminal conviction over his robbing a bank while his smartphone was on his person, violated his Fourth Amendment rights. The government, meanwhile, has argued that such data are not protected when provided voluntarily to a “third party” such as Google.

'Cautious Optimism' Amid Stalemated Pakistan Talks, Even As Iran FM Insists No Meeting Planned With US Side

Zerohedge

Iran denies that FM Abbas Araghchi's trip to Pakistan will include new talks with US, rejecting reports that Trump is sent his negotiating team to restart negotiations. 24/7 shuttle diplomacy (via Al Jazeera): There’' been shuttle diplomacy, and as one diplomat said, it's been relentless diplomacy that has been put forward by Pakistan from all sides. Iran's military says finger on the trigger: "greater power & readiness than before." Pakistani mediators are "cautiously optimistic" despite it being clear negotiations have been at a stalemate.

Interceptor-Drone Arms-Race Emerges

Zerohedge

The proliferation of cheap interceptor drones levels the playing field and provides a low-cost solution against Russian-produced Geran and Iranian-designed Shahed attack drones. Ukraine's interceptor drones are emerging as a cheap solution, costing roughly $1,000 to $3,000 each versus about $4 million for a Patriot missile used to down $20,000 Shahed drones. In the economics of war, this mismatch matters because missile use, especially in the U.S.-Iran conflict, has already outstripped the U.S.' annual production capacity.

IRGC Seizes Ship With Witkoff-Kushner Team En Route To Pakistan; US Sanctions Chinese Refinery, Iran Shadow Fleet

Zerohedge

IRGC seizes a ship it says 'collaborated with US' in provocative move ahead of Pakistan talks; Iran FM preparing written proposal for US side. President Trump is sending two envoys - Steve Witkoff and Jared Jushner - for talks with Iran in Pakistan, CNN reported, while Tehran sounded a more pessimistic tone on the prospects of further negotiations US hits Iran 'shadow fleet' with new sanctions, also takes aim at Chinese 'teapot' oil refinery.

US Drains Half Its Patriot Arsenal During Iran War, New Military Study Finds

ZeroHedge

The seven-week Iran war, currently on pause due to an extended ceasefire, has raised alarm in Washington over the question of how fast the US has burned through its missile interceptor stockpile. The two-week ceasefire, having just been extended, provided an opportunity for both sides to restock and regroup. A fresh analysis from the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) finds the US military tore through nearly half its Patriot interceptor inventory while heavily draining multiple other critical missile stockpiles.

Tit-For-Tat Assaults On Shipping Widen: US Intercepts 3 More 'Illicit' Tankers In Asian Waters, Iran Seizes Additional 2 In Hormuz

ZeroHedge

At least two fully laden Iranian tankers slip past US naval blockade, amid reports of more going dark, BBG reports, but Pentagon denies. Reports of three more Iranian tankers being seized by US in Asian waters. Iran in turn seizes 2 more ships in Hormuz, citing "dangerous navigation". Trump extends ceasefire by 3-5 days, per White House statement to Fox. Third US carrier precisely 3-5 day away from Mideast waters: Fox IRGC seized the MSC Francesca and a Greek-owned ship named Euphoria, which had been attempting to transit the Hormuz chokepoint earlier today. Within hours, a third ship comes under fire by the IRGC. Senior Iranian adviser says the US naval blockade is "no different than bombing" and must be met "with a military response". Competing narratives emerge over what Iran calls "fake news" as Trump hails "release" of 8 Iranian women said to be facing death penalty.

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