WILL TRUMP CUT A DEAL WITH IRAN?
Despite reports to the contrary, some in the Israeli leadership believe the president is considering paying off the Iranian government to open the Strait of Hormuz
This Week in the World Affairs Brief
IRAN: PROSPECTS FOR A LONG CONFLICT
This week I’m making the case that the Iran war is turning into a drawn out conflict with no easy end in site. In the first place, despite massive destruction by air on Iran’s military capacity, Iran continues to have enough missile and drone capability left to present an offensive threat to neighboring countries and ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. And even though anti-government protests in all of Iran’s provinces are increasing, the Revolutionary Guard is still very much in control of the government, and is not in any danger of collapsing, despite Trump’s hopeful claims about its instability. In fact, Trump’s unwise threats of annihilating the Iranian civilization has had a galvanizing effect on the Iranian leadership, convincing every religious and military leader in Iran that the US and Israel present an existential threat that requires a unified front. The negotiating positions of the US and Iran are increasingly hardened and unacceptable to each other. So it is little wonder that diplomacy keeps failing. Despite the impasse, both the US and Iran hold cards of strength that neither can effectively contest: Iran can still hold the Strait of Hormuz hostage, and Trump’s naval blockade is strangling Iran’s income stream and economy. Trump is now warning that the Iran blockade could last months, sending the price of oil soaring. To receive a free one-time sample of the Brief, along with options on how to subscribe, click on Request a sample on the left.
Also:
- Why There Won’t Be Peace in Lebanon
- Security at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner
- Preparedness Tip: Practicing Austerity
Daily News
Trump: US to Help ‘Free Up’ Ships in Strait of Hormuz Starting Monday
Trump revealed plans to ‘free up’ the ships in the crucial waterway in a Truth Social post on May 3.
Rubio Declares Offensive Stage Of Iran Conflict 'Over' - Just As New Cargo Vessel Under Attack In Hormuz
Rubio declares 'offensive' actions of Operation Epic Fury are over, and now Project Freedom is in swing. Another vessel comes under attack in Hormuz. UAE under attack again, confirmed in state sources - however which Iran denies doing - instead saying its actions were directed at the United States. White House still hasn't declared end of ceasefire. Pentagon addresses whether ceasefire over or violated: Caine says Iran's Monday operations were "all below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point." Contradictory statements out of Tehran on UAE attack, amid reports of division between IRGC & civilian leaders. Two US Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz and entered the Persian Gulf. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travels to Beijing to discuss crisis with Chinese counterpart.
UAE Says Iran Struck Oil Exporting Facility With Drone
Fujairah is the only oil exporting zone in the country. ...The strike, if confirmed, would be the first strike from Iran on one of its Gulf Arab neighbors since the start of a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran that was announced last month.
Big Shake-Up: Putin Fires Head Of Aerospace Forces After Devastating Ukrainian Drone Attacks
it comes amid growing anger among the Russian populace and among leadership following a series of major Ukrainian drone attacks.
Ceasefire Over? Trump Downplays 'Mini-War' After US & Iranians Trade Shots, Missiles Target UAE
Trump employs interesting new term: "We’re in, I call it a mini-war." Fujairah says 3 injured in Iranian attack on Oil Industry Zone, UAE confirms "air defenses are now dealing with a missile threat", we have gotten reports of explosions in Dubai, which has sent oil higher and Emini futures into the red. UAE threatens retaliation. CENTCOM hails two US merchant ships exiting Hormuz Strait safely in "first step". Bessent issues remarks warning the US "will fire if fired upon." Iran insists Hormuz is under its control & says it targeted & struck a US Navy vessel, which the Pentagon/Central Command has denied. Trump announced Sunday US will 'help free up' ships stuck in Hormuz Strait through Project Freedom. Iran has in response issued a "redefined the control zone" in Strait of Hormuz.
DC Judge APOLOGISES To Alleged Trump ASSASSIN`
A federal magistrate judge in Washington, D.C., has come under fire after expressing deep concern – described by multiple outlets as an apology – over the custody conditions of Cole Tomas Allen, the 31-year-old accused of attempting to assassinate President Trump at the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner on April 25.
Congress Sets MKUltra Hearing As CIA Mind-Control Experiments Face Renewed Scrutiny
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna’s task force to examine declassified documents and the suspicious death of a government scientist
Ukrainian Drone Hits Moscow Luxury Tower, Miles From Kremlin
The Russians are complaining that Ukrainian medium-range UAVs with unjammable Starlink communications are increasingly striking their rear-area logistics.
Trump Disapproval Rate Hits Career-High - War And Rising Costs Take Toll
In a survey of US adults taken in the last week of April, 62% said they disapprove of his general performance in the Oval Office. A whopping 76% disapprove of his handling of the cost of living and 66% disapprove of what he's done with Iran. A majority of Americans surveyed expressed disapproval of his handling of every issue covered by the survey.
Trump says US is to "guide" ships through the Strait, though Iran threatens attacks on those attempting to enter
US President Trump posted on Sunday that the US will guide neutral ships safely out of the Strait of Hormuz under “Project Freedom”, beginning Monday morning Middle East time. An Iranian official said any American interference in the new maritime regime of the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire. Iranian Major Abdullahi said any foreign armed forces, particularly the US, would be attacked if they approach and enter the Strait of Hormuz.
Russia’s Oil Revenues Surge as the World Scrambles for Supply
Asian economies are dramatically increasing imports of discounted Russian crude amid global supply disruptions. A temporary U.S. sanctions waiver is enabling more Russian oil to flow into global markets. The shift risks boosting Moscow’s war revenues while exposing the limits of Western energy sanctions.
Ukraine Flexes With Much Deeper Drone Reach Targeting Russia's Refineries
In some cases, targets in the Urals - nearly 1,000 miles away from the Ukraine border - have been hit. Transneft’s oil pumping and distribution facility in the city of Perm was struck this week, which lies very far into Russian territory.
Breaking: FDA Knew of Better Method to Detect Sudden Deaths After COVID Vaccines — But Refused to Use it.
New documents obtained by Sen. Ron Johnson reveal that Biden-era federal health officials refused to use a state-of-the-art statistical tool for detecting COVID-19 vaccination signals in VAERS — even though they knew the tool they were using was broken and failed to pick up on safety signals, including sudden cardiac death.
Children’s Health Defense Scientist: CDC, FDA COVID Vaccine Safety Monitoring ‘Insulting, and Many People Are Injured’
Federal health officials under the Biden administration abysmally failed at monitoring COVID-19 vaccine safety signals after the vaccine rollout, according to congressional testimony delivered today by Children’s Health Defense Senior Research Scientist Karl Jablonowski. The government’s vaccine safety monitoring “has been insulting, and many people are injured,” Jablonowski wrote in his written testimony.
What Year Cars Have GPS Tracking: Essential Data
As of late 2023, most cars manufactured from around 2010 onwards have integrated GPS tracking, often as part of their infotainment systems or emergency services. However, built-in, always-on GPS for tracking purposes is more common in vehicles equipped with advanced telematics or connected car services introduced in newer model years.
The TPS Scam: Ending Decades of Backdoor Amnesty
For decades, the American people have been lied to about “Temporary Protected Status,” or TPS. The very name is a deception. The “T” stands for temporary, yet in practice, this program has morphed into one of the most blatant forms of backdoor amnesty ever devised. Congressman Andrew Clyde (R-GA) has stepped up with H.R. 8460, the Territorial Protection and Sovereignty Act, which repeals the authority for TPS altogether, terminates existing designations, and requires current holders to leave the United States.
Ahead Of Trump-Xi Summit, Beijing Tells Chinese Firms To Ignore U.S. Sanctions On "Teapot" Refineries
Perhaps last week's sanctions on China's teapot refiners are part of a leverage campaign by the Trump team ahead of the upcoming meeting. By Saturday morning, Beijing announced that companies in the country should ignore and not comply with U.S. sanctions targeting five domestic refineries.
Russian oil flows to Syria surge by 75 percent since Assad's fall: Report
While these volumes account for only a small fraction of Russia’s total global oil exports, they are significant for Syria. With domestic production still well below demand, Russian supplies have made Moscow the country’s leading crude provider.
We Now Know How The Government Lied About the COVID Vaccines
Senator Ron Johnson, who has worked tirelessly to expose this coverup, recently held a Senate hearing whose title says it all: “Unmasked: How Biden Health Officials Purposely Turned a Blind Eye Toward COVID-19 Vaccine Safety Signals.” Faced with a tsunami of vaccine injuries too large for anyone to ignore, the FDA and CDC searched for a way to statistically dismiss it, eventually settling on comparing Moderna’s injury rate to Pfizer’s and declaring the vaccines “safe” because there was no major difference between the two. When a senior FDA analyst pointed out this obvious flaw and suggested comparing them to less toxic vaccines instead, documents show the entire FDA turned against her to suppress her findings. As a result, dozens of conditions we have all seen the COVID vaccines cause were never officially linked to them—despite the data clearly showing they were.
Trump Removes All National Science Board Members
When asked why the members were removed, a White House official told The Epoch Times via email that a 2021 Supreme Court decision “raised constitutional questions about whether non-Senate confirmed appointees can exercise the authorities that Congress gave the National Science Board.” “We look forward to working with the Hill to update the statute and ensure the NSB can perform its duties as Congress intended,” the official stated. “The National Science Foundation’s work continues uninterrupted.”
Iran Already Scrambling For Oil Storage After Two Weeks Of US Blockade
If wells are forced to shut down due to lack of storage, this could cause permanent damage and render the wells unusable in the future. Recovery is expensive and difficult. If the current data is accurate, then Iran has approximately two more weeks before their economy is destroyed. Loss of $430 million per day in export revenues aside, permanent damage to their oil fields would result in a long term economic disaster. The danger of well shutdowns is probably the reason why the regime has offered new proposals every few days to open the Strait of Hormuz, though, they continue to call for a separate negotiation on their estimated 970 pounds of enriched Uranium stockpile. There is little incentive for Trump to lift the blockade at this time, given the amount of leverage he will have over the Iranian economy if he maintains restrictions on their oil exports for another two weeks. The regime is trapped between a rock and a hard place, and will have to decide soon if their oil wells are more important to them than their Uranium.
First Loaded LNG Tanker Clears Hormuz; First Crude Supertanker Attempts Exit
the Mubaraz LNG tanker was loaded at ADNOC's Das Island facility in Abu Dhabi in early March and turned off its transponder around March 31, only reappearing west of India on Monday. The latest ship-tracking data from Bloomberg shows that Mubaraz is approaching the southern tip of Sri Lanka, with the vessel signaling China as its port of call.
Monsanto Weed Killer Case Could Upend Billions in Compensation
The court must decide whether the EPA’s position that glyphosate needs no cancer warning shields companies from state lawsuits.
Supreme Court Lifts Lower Court Block on New Texas Congressional Election Map
The ruling means the new map that favors Republicans will remain in place for the November congressional elections.
DeSantis Unveils New Florida Congressional Map That Could Add 4 GOP Seats
since the 2020 Census and said the state’s population growth and political shift justify revisiting district boundaries. He noted that Republicans now outnumber Democrats in the state by about 1.5 million voters. He also criticized the current district lines, saying maps drawn with racial considerations are unconstitutional and should not be used.
WHCA Shooter's Tweets Found, Suggesting Radicalization Fueled By Democratic Messaging
Shooter's archived tweets emerge Shooter's Manifesto explained about Trump admin target kill list. He wrote, "prioritized from highest-ranking to lowest" ... Shooter's intent was to Target Trump & admin officials Shooter donated to "Harris for President" via ActBlue Shooter apprehended and taken into custody. Carrying shotgun, handgun and several knives. The shooter has been identified as Cole Tomas Allen, 31, of Torrance California No injuries to Trump or any guests. Incident near lobby magnetometer screening. Trump praised Secret Service rapid response.
US Allows Venezuela to Fund Maduro’s Defense After Court Challenge
Maduro is awaiting trial in New York City on federal charges related to narco-terrorism and drug trafficking.
Supreme Court to Review Geofencing in Pivotal Case for Privacy Rights
The Supreme Court on April 27 will hear oral arguments in a case with major implications for privacy rights—and how law enforcement uses Americans’ cellphone data while investigating crimes. The case, Chatrie v. United States, centers on law enforcement’s use of “geofencing warrants”—judge-authorized requests for cellphone location data near the scene of a crime. Okello Chatrie told the Supreme Court that the government’s use of these warrants, which resulted in a criminal conviction over his robbing a bank while his smartphone was on his person, violated his Fourth Amendment rights. The government, meanwhile, has argued that such data are not protected when provided voluntarily to a “third party” such as Google.
Israel Bombs Deep Into Lebanon For First Time Of 3-Week Ceasefire
There's supposed to be a 3-week Lebanon ceasefire in effect, but that increasingly appears something merely on paper or in name only, as Israel has stepped up and expanded its attacks on Lebanon - now for the first time of the ceasefire including strikes on the far away Beqaa Valley.